BIOWATER has finalised its second special issue in the journal CATENA. Follow this link to find all papers: “Assessing the potential for adverse environmental side-effects of a developing bio-economy in Nordic river basins”.

The special issue was edited by Jan Vermaat, Philip Jordan, Per-Erik Mellander and Marc Stutter. It comprises 10 papers that combine empirical findings with modelled scenario outcomes until 2050. The issue is a continuation of our AMBIO special issue from 2020. A preface of the special issue summarises the main findings. The 10 papers in CATENA have been divided into the following topics:

BIOWATER’s latest research results in a nutshell

Jan Vermaat headed the work on summarising BIOWATER’s results since the last summary in 2020 (Skarbøvik et al. 2020), concluding, amongst others, that a sustainable pathway will optimise both water quality and biodiversity without welfare loss:

• Vermaat et al. 2023. Projecting the impacts of the bioeconomy on Nordic land use and freshwater quality and quantity – An overview

Scenarios for a Nordic bioeconomy

The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (O’Neill et al. 2017) were translated to Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways by Rakovic et al. (2020), and were then further articulated through stakeholder consultations and expert opinions, as described in this paper:

• Lyche Solheim et al. 2023. Land-use change in a Nordic future towards bioeconomy: A methodological framework to compare and merge stakeholder and expert opinions on qualitative scenarios.

Modelling the scenarios

The Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways were modelled in all four countries. As noted in the preface, the greenest scenario (Sustainability first) was in general the best for the water environment, whereas intensification of land use (both within forestry and agriculture) will likely be most pronounced in a business-as-usual, growth-orientated, or food security scenario. In these scenarios it will likely be difficult to reach the water quality targets set under the European Water Framework Directive.

• Denmark: Carstensen et al. 2023. Modelling the impact of the Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways and climate change on water quantity and quality in a Danish River Basin
• Sweden: Mårtensson et al. 2023. Estimated nutrient leakage from arable land in different bioeconomy scenarios for two areas in central Sweden, determined using a leaching coefficient method.
• Norway: Farkas et al. 2023. Suspended sediment response to Nordic bioeconomy and climate change scenarios in a first-order agricultural catchment.
• Finland: Rankinen et al. 2023. Influence of forest management changes and reuse of peat production areas on water quality in a northern river.

Ecosystem services

Ecosystems provide us with a variety of services, and by comparing these under the five Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways, BIOWATER researchers found that the summed value of all services were highest under the Sustainability first’ and ‘Growth first’ scenarios. Moreover, the value of outdoor recreation may not be sufficiently considered as compared to other ecosystem services in current decision making.

• Immerzeel et al. 2023. The value of change: A scenario assessment of the effects of bioeconomy driven land use change on ecosystem service provision

Mitigation measures

In order to reduce impacts of a growing bioeconomy with increased biomass exploitation, mitigation measures will become increasingly important. Hence, knowledge on the effectiveness of such mitigation is necessary:

• Krzeminska et al. 2023. The effectiveness of sediment and phosphorus removal by a small, constructed wetland in Norway: 18 years of monitoring and perspectives for the future.
• Kyllmar et al. 2023. Nitrogen and phosphorus losses in Nordic and Baltic agricultural monitoring catchments – Spatial and temporal variations in relation to natural conditions and mitigation programmes.

Novel monitoring methods

When the land use change, so will the water quantity and quality: Monitoring such effects is important, and the use of novel monitoring methods needs to be further explored to ensure that they are harmonised and thereby comparable:  

• Skarbøvik et al. 2023. Comparing in situ turbidity sensor measurements as a proxy for suspended sediments in North-Western European streams.

All these papers can be found in the CATENA Special Issue.

Feature photo: Eva Skarbøvik.